John Locke Global Essay Prize 2026 Public Policy Prompts Breakdown

Feb 10

The John Locke Institute has just released the prompts for their international essay writing competitions for high school students. They have released three prompts for each of the following categories, philosophy, politics, economics, history, law, psychology, international relations, public policy, science & technology and theology. Each essay must address only one of the questions in your chosen subject category, and must not exceed 2000 words (not counting diagrams, tables of data, endnotes, bibliography or authorship declaration).

To be eligible to compete, one's 19th birthday must fall after 31 May, 2026. Given this easily satisfied requirement for high school students the world over, many compete in this competition, making it incredibly competitive.

The John Locke Competition is one of the most prestigious essay writing competitions for high school students. It ranks alongside the Scholastic Arts and Writing Awards as a humanities extracurricular activity that would impress admissions officers. Placing competitively in this competition could be what convinces an admissions officer at an elite university to admit an applicant.

One major difference between the John Locke competition and the Scholastic Writing and Arts Awards is that it has a right-wing, instead of a left-wing focus. Past winning essays have argued for fringe ideas like anarcho-capitalism. The John Locke Institute is committed to upholding the principles of classical liberalism espoused by John Locke, the founder of liberalism. Being liberal in Europe has a different connotation than it does in the U.S. While liberalism in the U.S. is associated with center-left politics like the Democratic Party, in Europe, it denotes what Americans would call libertarians, who believe in laissez-faire economic policies and upholding individual freedom to the point that it might enable individuals to infringe on the liberties of others, such as individuals having the right to deny service to people at their place of business due to their sexual orientation.

Despite the competition's right-wing focus, and the well-known left-wing bias of academics and admissions officers, high school students can place competitively without arguing for positions that would decrease their likability with a left-wing audience when applying to college.

We have extensive experience guiding applicants through this competition and are proud to have students who received at least a commendation from the judges. In this article, we will outline the three public policy questions they ask and provide resources, along with cliff notes for these resources, to help start one's journey towards drafting compelling answers to these questions.

Public Policy Q1: What discount rate should be applied to long-run environmental policies? Why?

John Locke's Works

1. Two Treatises of Government (1689)

Chapter V on property establishes that resources should not be wasted or spoiled
The "sufficiency proviso": leave "enough and as good" for others
Raises question of obligations to future generations who are also "others"
Framework for examining intergenerational justice in resource use

2. An Essay Concerning Human Understanding (1689)

Book II, Chapter XXI discusses how we weigh present versus future goods
Locke notes humans tend to discount distant pleasures and pains
Relevant for understanding psychological basis of discounting
Framework for examining whether discounting is rational

3. Some Thoughts Concerning Education (1693)

Discusses importance of teaching children to defer gratification
Argues reason should govern impulse toward immediate satisfaction
Relevant for examining whether high discount rates reflect irrationality
Framework for thinking about prudence across time

Historical Resources

1. Arthur Pigou's "The Economics of Welfare" (1920)

Foundational welfare economics text
Discusses "defective telescopic faculty" - tendency to undervalue future
Argues discounting future welfare may be irrational
Historical foundation for debates about social discount rates

2. Frank Ramsey's "A Mathematical Theory of Saving" (1928)

Develops optimal savings theory
Famous statement: discounting future utility is "ethically indefensible"
Establishes Ramsey equation for discount rates
Foundational mathematical treatment

3. John Rawls's "A Theory of Justice" (1971)

Section 45 addresses justice between generations
Argues principles should be chosen without knowing one's generation
"Just savings principle" for intergenerational equity
Philosophical framework for equal treatment across time

4. Derek Parfit's "Reasons and Persons" (1984)

Part IV examines future generations and personal identity
Argues for moral equality of future persons
"Non-Identity Problem" complicates harm to future generations
Essential philosophical treatment of intergenerational ethics

5. Edmund Burke's "Reflections on the Revolution in France" (1790)

Argues society is partnership between generations
"Partnership not only between those who are living, but between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are to be born"
Conservative framework for intergenerational obligation
Relevant for examining duties to future generations

Contemporary Resources

1. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006)

Nicholas Stern's influential UK government report
Uses near-zero pure time preference (0.1%)
Argues for aggressive climate action based on low discount rate
Most influential application of low discounting to climate policy

2. William Nordhaus's critique of Stern and DICE model

Uses higher discount rate (~3%) based on market returns
Argues Stern's rate is inconsistent with observed behavior
Develops Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model
Represents mainstream economic approach to climate discounting

3. Martin Weitzman's work on discount rates

"Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate" (1998)
Argues uncertainty about future rates justifies declining discount rates
"Gamma discounting" approach
Important theoretical contribution to the debate

4. Partha Dasgupta's review of Stern Review (2006)

Cambridge economist's critical analysis
Argues Stern's ethical assumptions are questionable
Examines relationship between discounting and inequality
Important academic critique of low discounting

5. Tyler Cowen and Derek Parfit, "Against the Social Discount Rate" (1992)

Philosophical critique of positive discount rates
Argues for near-zero pure time preference
Distinguishes different justifications for discounting
Accessible philosophical treatment

6. John Broome's "Climate Matters" (2012) and "Counting the Cost of Global Warming" (1992)

Oxford philosopher's treatment of climate ethics
Argues discounting future welfare is unjust
Careful analysis of discount rate components
Philosophical approach to the question

7. The UK Treasury Green Book

Official UK government guidance on policy appraisal
Uses declining discount rates for long-term projects
Shows how governments actually apply discounting
Practical policy application

8. Recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports

Discusses discount rates in climate policy assessment
Reviews literature on social cost of carbon
Shows range of rates used in climate economics
Authoritative scientific/policy source

Key Questions and Issues to Address

Definitional Challenges

What is a "discount rate"? Pure time preference, opportunity cost, or both?
What is the "social" discount rate versus private discount rate?
How does discounting differ from uncertainty about the future?

Components of the Discount Rate

Pure time preference (δ): Do we value future utility less simply because it's future?
Growth adjustment (ηg): If future generations are richer, should we prioritize the present poor?
Ramsey equation: r = δ + ηg (discount rate = pure time preference + elasticity × growth rate)

Theoretical Frameworks

Utilitarian: Maximize total welfare across all times
Prioritarian: Give extra weight to worse-off (currently living?)
Contractualist: What would rational agents agree to behind veil of ignorance?
How would Locke's "enough and as good" proviso apply?

Arguments for Lower Discount Rates

Future people's welfare matters equally (ethical argument)
High rates justify ignoring catastrophic long-term harms
Uncertainty about growth rates favors lower rates (Weitzman)
Observed market rates reflect individual, not social, preferences

Arguments for Higher Discount Rates

Opportunity cost: Resources invested now grow over time
Future generations will likely be richer than us
Low rates lead to absurd conclusions (e.g., impoverishing present for tiny future gains)
Democratic legitimacy: Current voters shouldn't bind future voters

Practical Implications

Low discount rate (Stern): Climate change is urgent emergency requiring immediate massive investment
Higher discount rate (Nordhaus): Gradual policy response is optimal
The difference between 1% and 4% discount rates transforms policy conclusions

Complications

Should discount rates decline over time?
How do we handle uncertainty about future conditions?
Should we discount welfare, consumption, or something else?
Does discounting apply to non-monetary values (lives, species)?

Public Policy Q2: Which unintended consequence was most devastating and why did we fail to predict it?

John Locke's Works

1. An Essay Concerning Human Understanding (1689)

Book IV discusses the limits of human knowledge
Chapter XIV on judgment under uncertainty
Locke emphasizes human cognitive limitations
Framework for understanding why prediction fails

2. Two Treatises of Government (1689)

Chapter XIX discusses unintended consequences of political arrangements
Shows how actions taken for one purpose can produce opposite effects
Relevant for examining policy unintended consequences
Locke's awareness of complexity in social systems

3. Some Thoughts Concerning Education (1693)

Discusses how well-intentioned educational practices can backfire
Warns against unintended effects of excessive strictness or indulgence
Framework for examining unintended consequences in social policy

Historical Resources

1. Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" (1776)

Develops concept of "invisible hand" - unintended positive consequences
Shows how self-interested action can produce social benefits
Framework for understanding emergent social outcomes
Foundation for thinking about unintended consequences

2. Frédéric Bastiat's "That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen" (1850)

Classic essay on unintended consequences in economics
Argues policymakers focus on visible effects, ignore invisible ones
"Broken window fallacy" illustrates the problem
Essential reading on policy blindspots

3. Robert Merton's "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action" (1936)

Foundational sociological treatment of unintended consequences
Identifies sources: ignorance, error, immediacy of interest, values, self-defeating predictions
Establishes framework for systematic analysis
Classic academic treatment of the phenomenon

4. Friedrich Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society" (1945)

Argues central planners cannot possess dispersed social knowledge
Explains why top-down interventions often fail
Framework for understanding information problems in policy
Influential libertarian/conservative analysis

5. Karl Popper's "The Poverty of Historicism" (1957)

Argues against confident social prediction
Shows why complex social systems resist forecasting
"Piecemeal social engineering" as alternative to grand planning
Philosophical framework for policy humility

Contemporary Resources

1. James Scott's "Seeing Like a State" (1998)

Examines how state simplification schemes fail
Case studies: Soviet collectivization, Tanzanian villagization, Brasília
Argues "high modernist" planning ignores local knowledge
Essential reading on large-scale policy failures

2. Albert Hirschman's "The Rhetoric of Reaction" (1991)

Analyzes conservative arguments about unintended consequences
"Perversity thesis": Interventions produce opposite of intended effect
"Jeopardy thesis": Reforms endanger previous achievements
Framework for evaluating unintended consequence arguments

3. Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner's "Freakonomics" (2005)

Accessible treatment of unintended consequences
Examples: Incentives for teachers leading to cheating, naming patterns
Shows counterintuitive social dynamics
Popular introduction to the concept

4. Dietrich Dörner's "The Logic of Failure" (1996)

Psychological study of why people make bad decisions in complex systems
Examines cognitive biases that lead to policy failure
Computer simulation studies of policy decision-making
Framework for understanding predictive failure

5. Philip Tetlock's "Expert Political Judgment" (2005)

Comprehensive study of expert prediction accuracy
Shows experts often no better than chance at prediction
Identifies factors that improve and impair forecasting
Empirical foundation for epistemic humility

6. Case study literature on specific policy failures

Prohibition and organized crime
Cobra effect in colonial India
DDT and environmental damage
Thalidomide
Deinstitutionalization and homelessness
Antibiotics and resistance
Social media and democracy

Key Questions and Issues to Address

Definitional Challenges

What counts as "unintended"? Unforeseen, foreseen but ignored, or undesired?
What counts as "devastating"? Death toll, economic cost, civilizational impact?
How do we compare consequences across different domains?

Candidate Cases for "Most Devastating"

Leaded gasoline: Intended to reduce engine knock, caused massive lead poisoning, cognitive damage, possibly crime wave
The Great Leap Forward: Intended to industrialize China rapidly, caused worst famine in history (30-45 million deaths)
Prohibition: Intended to reduce alcohol harm, created organized crime, corruption, dangerous drinking
Antibiotics overuse: Intended to cure infections, creating antibiotic-resistant superbugs
Colonial interventions: Intended to "civilize," caused genocide, cultural destruction, ongoing instability
Social media: Intended to connect people, may be undermining democracy and mental health
Green Revolution: Intended to end hunger, caused environmental degradation, water depletion
CFCs: Intended as safe refrigerants, destroyed ozone layer

Why We Fail to Predict

Complexity: Social systems have too many interacting variables
Feedback loops: Actions change the system, which changes outcomes
Human adaptation: People respond strategically to policies
Hubris: Overconfidence in our understanding
Incentives: Those with information may not share it; those deciding may not bear costs
Time horizons: Long-term effects invisible to short-term political cycles
Motivated reasoning: We see what we want to see

Theoretical Frameworks

Complex systems theory: Emergent properties, nonlinear dynamics
Public choice theory: Political incentives distort policy
Behavioral economics: Cognitive biases affect prediction
How would Locke's epistemology explain predictive failure?

Evaluation Criteria

Scale of harm (deaths, suffering, economic loss)
Preventability (was information available?)
Duration (how long did harm continue?)
Reversibility (can damage be undone?)

Lessons for Policy

What practices might improve prediction?
Should we prefer incremental to revolutionary change?
How do we institutionalize awareness of unintended consequences?
Is there a tradeoff between ambition and safety in policy?

Public Policy Q3: Should vaccination be mandatory in a public health emergency?

John Locke's Works

1. Two Treatises of Government (1689)

Chapter II establishes natural liberty but notes it operates within natural law
Chapter VII discusses when individuals may be restrained for common good
Chapter IX: People enter society for "mutual preservation"
Framework for examining when liberty may be limited for public health

2. A Letter Concerning Toleration (1689)

Argues state cannot coerce matters of conscience
But distinguishes civil interests (including health) from religious matters
"The care of each man's soul belongs unto himself"
Relevant for examining limits on state health authority

3. An Essay Concerning Human Understanding (1689)

Book IV discusses how we reason about probable matters
Relevant for examining how we should respond to uncertain evidence
Framework for evaluating scientific claims about vaccines

4. Some Thoughts Concerning Education (1693)

Discusses children's health and parental responsibilities
Relevant for examining parental rights versus child welfare
Framework for thinking about mandatory childhood vaccination

Historical Resources

1. John Stuart Mill's "On Liberty" (1859)

Chapter I introduces harm principle: Liberty may be restricted only to prevent harm to others
Chapter IV discusses applications to public health
"The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others"
Essential framework for mandatory vaccination debate

2. Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905)

U.S. Supreme Court upholds mandatory smallpox vaccination
Establishes that states may restrict liberty for public health
"The liberty secured by the Constitution does not import an absolute right in each person to be at all times, and in all circumstances, wholly freed from restraint"
Key legal precedent for vaccination mandates

3. The history of smallpox vaccination and eradication

Jenner's discovery (1796) and spread of vaccination
Resistance movements in 19th century England
WHO global eradication campaign (1967-1980)
Historical example of mandatory vaccination success

4. Mary Mallon ("Typhoid Mary") case

Asymptomatic carrier quarantined against her will
Raises questions about individual liberty versus public health
Historical precedent for restricting liberty of disease carriers
Case study in public health coercion

5. Buck v. Bell (1927)

Supreme Court upholds forced sterilization
Oliver Wendell Holmes: "Three generations of imbeciles are enough"
Cautionary example of public health justifying bodily violation
Shows dangers of overreaching public health power

Contemporary Resources

1. Alberto Giubilini's "The Ethics of Vaccination" (2019)

Comprehensive philosophical treatment of vaccination ethics
Argues for moral obligation to vaccinate
Examines when mandates are justified
Academic treatment of the question

2. Jessica Flanigan's "A Defense of Compulsory Vaccination" (2014)

Libertarian philosopher's argument for mandates
Argues unvaccinated impose risks on others
Uses self-defense framework to justify mandates
Important because it's a libertarian case for mandates

3. Jason Brennan's work on vaccine ethics

"A Libertarian Case for Mandatory Vaccination" (2016)
Argues non-vaccination is like reckless endangerment
Uses clean hands principle
Another libertarian argument for mandates

4. Research on vaccine hesitancy

WHO designation as top 10 global health threat (2019)
Studies on sources of hesitancy (distrust, misinformation, values)
Research on effective interventions
Empirical context for policy debate

5. COVID-19 vaccine mandate debates and litigation

Biden administration OSHA mandate and Supreme Court ruling
European country variations (Austria, Italy, France)
Comparative policy analysis
Contemporary application of the question

6. Research on herd immunity thresholds

Disease-specific requirements for community protection
Evidence on whether mandates achieve necessary coverage
Empirical foundation for policy effectiveness

7. Julian Savulescu's work on public health ethics

"Good reasons to vaccinate: mandatory or payment for risk?" (2020)
Examines alternatives to mandates (incentives, nudges)
Framework for comparing policy instruments
Influential bioethicist's treatment

Key Questions and Issues to Address

Definitional Challenges

What counts as "mandatory"? Criminal penalty, loss of employment, school exclusion, financial penalty?
What constitutes a "public health emergency"? Who declares it?
How effective must a vaccine be to justify mandates?

Theoretical Frameworks

Libertarianism: Maximum individual liberty; mandates require strong justification
Utilitarianism: Maximize overall welfare; may justify mandates if benefits exceed costs
Communitarianism: Emphasize social solidarity and mutual obligation
How would Locke's framework of natural liberty constrained by natural law apply?

Arguments for Mandatory Vaccination

Harm principle: Unvaccinated impose risks on others (immunocompromised, children)
Free rider problem: Voluntary vaccination may be insufficient for herd immunity
Protecting those who cannot be vaccinated
Preventing healthcare system collapse
Analogies: Drunk driving laws, building codes, food safety regulations

Arguments Against Mandatory Vaccination

Bodily autonomy: Fundamental right to control what enters one's body
Religious and conscientious objections
Distrust of government and pharmaceutical companies
Vaccine side effects impose costs on individuals for collective benefit
Historical abuses of public health power (forced sterilization, Tuskegee)
May backfire by increasing resistance and distrust

Middle Positions and Alternatives

Mandates for some (healthcare workers) but not others
Incentives rather than penalties
Nudges and default rules
Enhanced education and outreach
Mandates for some vaccines (proven safe) but not others (emergency authorized)

Specific Emergency Considerations

Does emergency status change the calculus?
How certain must we be about vaccine safety and efficacy?
Time pressure versus deliberation
Exit strategy: When does emergency end?

Practical Considerations

Enforcement feasibility
Political backlash and social division
Effects on trust in public health institutions
Equity concerns: Who bears costs of mandates?

Comparative Analysis

How have different countries approached this question?
What does the variation tell us about which approach is correct?
Do outcomes differ based on mandate stringency?

If you are overwhelmed by the number of sources and complexity of answering these questions, we understand. English teachers don't prepare high school students to tackle such formidable challenges in the humanities. But we do. Schedule a free consultation with a John Locke competition writing expert today and learn how to unpack all of these sources to write a coherent and logically sound 2000 word essay which will earn you a competitive placing in this competition and impress admission officers.

Work With Our John Locke Expert Coaches

Cosmic College Consulting has helped students earn shortlists, commendations, and prizes in the John Locke Competition. Our three expert coaches have collectively supervised 50+ John Locke essays and bring deep expertise in philosophy, politics, economics, and academic writing.

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John Locke Specialist | Scholastic Writing Expert

Supervised 25+ John Locke Competition essays with 10+ students earning commendations
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PhD, Duke University | Published Academic & Periodical Writer

Supervised 25+ John Locke Competition essays, students have earned shortlists, Junior Prize placements, and top commendations
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Schedule a free consultation with one of our John Locke expert coaches today. Learn how to unpack these sources, develop a compelling thesis, and write a coherent, logically sound 2000-word essay that will earn you a competitive placing in this competition and impress admissions officers.

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